Jumat, 19 Desember 2014

# Download Ebook How the End Begins: The Road to a Nuclear World War III, by Ron Rosenbaum

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How the End Begins: The Road to a Nuclear World War III, by Ron Rosenbaum

How the End Begins: The Road to a Nuclear World War III, by Ron Rosenbaum



How the End Begins: The Road to a Nuclear World War III, by Ron Rosenbaum

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How the End Begins: The Road to a Nuclear World War III, by Ron Rosenbaum

The president loses control of fifty nukes for nearly an hour. Russian nuclear bombers almost bump wingtips with American fighter jets over the Pacific coast. North Korea detonates nuclear weapons underground. Iran’s nuclear shroud is penetrated by a computer worm. Al-Qaeda goes on the hunt for Pakistan’s bomb, and Israelis debate the merit of a preemptive nuclear strike. Treaties are signed, but thousands of nuclear weapons are still on hair-trigger alert.

This is how the end begins.

In this startling new book, bestselling author Ron Rosenbaum gives us a wake-up call about this new age of peril and delivers a provocative analysis of how close—and how often—the world has come to nuclear annihilation and why we are once again on the brink.

Rosenbaum tracks down key characters in our new nuclear drama and probes deeply into their war game strategies, fears, and moral agonies. He travels to Omaha’s underground nuclear command center, goes deep into the missile silo complexes beneath the Great Plains, and holds in his hands a set of nuclear launch keys.

Along the way, Rosenbaum confronts the missile men as well as the general at the very top of our nation’s nuclear command system with tough questions about the terrifying assumptions underlying it. He reveals disturbing flaws in our nuclear launch control system, suggests remedies for them, shows how the old Cold War system of bipolar deterrence has become dangerously unstable, and examines the new movement for nuclear abolition.

Having explored the depths of Hitler’s evil and the intense emotion of Shakespeare’s tragedies, Rosenbaum now has produced a powerful, urgently needed work that challenges us: Can we undream our nightmare?

  • Sales Rank: #824467 in Books
  • Published on: 2011-03-01
  • Released on: 2011-03-01
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.25" h x 1.10" w x 6.12" l, 1.10 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 320 pages

From Publishers Weekly
Rosenbaum (The Shakespeare Wars), an investigative reporter and Slate columnist, examines the potential for and consequences of nuclear conflict in this sobering, well-argued study. Drawing on decades of study in the field, the author points to a new world that will feature multiple nuclear powers that pose a threat for "touching off a regional nuclear war that could escalate to global scale." Nuclear weapons in the hands of such unstable regimes as Pakistan, North Korea, or Iran is not Rosenbaum's only concern. He worries about Russia's "new bellicosity" and its shoring up and modernization of its nuclear arsenal. Moreover, he argues that the Obama administration's new START treaty preserves a dangerous status quo that leaves in place a "rickety" nuclear command and control system with a "one percent per year" risk of failure. After examining and reluctantly dismissing the prospects for nuclear disarmament, the author concludes with a stark warning: "It's all about luck now. I'm a pessimist." In clear, crisp language, Rosenbaum not only vividly details his personal odyssey "to map out the terra incognita... of the new nuclear landscape," but also challenges the rest of us to confront the gathering storm. (Mar.)
(c) Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved.

From Booklist
It�s time to rethink the unthinkable, says Rosenbaum. Impelled by his advocacy to abolish nuclear weapons, he interviewed former and current military officials, academic strategists, and philosophers, who ponder the reliability of nuclear command and control and contingencies that contemplate using nuclear weapons. Providing readers summaries of the cold war�s nuclear close calls, Rosenbaum quizzes defenders and critics of nuclear deterrence. He is naturally sympathetic to arguments that deterrence is an unstable mind game destined to fail. How it might takes Rosenbaum into scenarios involving a country regularly assailed by threats of annihilation, Israel. What if, despite Israel�s atomic arsenal, Iranian menaces eventuate in a nuclear attack (which Rosenbaum pessimistically predicts). Rosenbaum asks several interlocutors if Israeli retaliation that would kill millions of innocents could be ethically justified. Shifting the problem from seminar abstraction to air-raid reality, Rosenbaum discusses war risks run by Israel�s acts of preemption, as in its 2007 destruction of a Syrian nuclear reactor. With the bomb proliferating, Rosenbaum is an alarming herald of current and possibly future events. --Gilbert Taylor

Review
“Ron Rosenbaum might qualify for the title of America’s greatest living journalist. He is certainly a hero to an entire generation of writers. No matter the subject, Rosenbaum asks the hardest questions, draws out the most fascinating and unexpected answers, and never, ever gives up. And he has not yet written, in his long and storied career, an uninteresting sentence. When Rosenbaum gets fixed on a subject as urgent as the specter of nuclear catastrophe, he produces work that is unparalleled in the English language.”
—Jeffrey Goldberg, National Correspondent for The Atlantic and author of Prisoners

“Ron Rosenbaum has written a Dr. Strangelove for our time. He’s done the seemingly impossible: captured the way our current situation is even more terrifying, more deeply surreal. If you ever thought human beings were rational, think again.”
—Errol Morris, director of The Fog of War

“If you think ‘the atomic age’ is over, read this book and shudder. Ron Rosenbaum plunges into the rabbit hole of nuclear-deterrence thinking—from the missilemen in the silos to the commanders on the lookout posts to the strategic priests turned no-nukes advocates—with infectious zest. He knows the intellectual thrill of tracing the war-gamers’ logic all the way out—and the moral horror that comes from daring to look into the abyss.”
—Fred Kaplan, Slate War Stories columnist and author of The Wizards of Armageddon

“When President Obama called for a world without nuclear weapons, some were skeptical. Read this book to understand the fearful alternatives.”
—Hendrik Hertzberg, senior editor at The New Yorker

“While the world twiddles its thumbs in the face of the possibility of nuclear devastation, Ron Rosenbaum’s well argued and courageous book convincingly says: Wake up! The ‘end’ in his title is a diabolical double entendre: the end of the world, or the end of the staggering danger of world holocaust? Rosenbaum says to humanity: choose.”
—Todd Gitlin, author of The Chosen Peoples and The Sixties

“Ron Rosenbaum takes on the subject of how Armageddon might come: not because of divine intervention but because of the endemic incompetence of the human species. Rosenbaum tells this story with his characteristic mix of shoe-leather reporting, deep analysis, and elegant writing.”
—Peter Bergen, author of The Longest War and The Osama bin Laden I Know

“A tenaciously reported, passionately argued warning.”
—Kirkus Reviews

“With the bomb proliferating, Rosenbaum is an alarming herald of current and possibly future events.”
—Booklist

“In clear, crisp language, Rosenbaum not only vividly details his personal odyssey ‘to map out the terra incognita . . . of the new nuclear landscape,’ but also challenges the rest of us to confront the gathering storm.”
—Publishers Weekly

“Rosenbaum’s books are both profound and excited . . . [How the End Begins] is a wide-angle and quite dire meditation on our nuclear present . . . an intellectual drag race. . . . He asks funny, mordant questions . . . [and] is bracing and never dull.”
—Dwight Garner, The New York Times

“How the End Begins raises fundamental questions more acutely than dozens of other recent books on the nuclear problem.”
—Richard Rhodes, The New York Times Book Review

Most helpful customer reviews

41 of 51 people found the following review helpful.
Not as good as I expected
By Graham DeShazo
This book is long on supposition, conjecture, and theory (as well as a heavy-handed dose of personal morality), and short on facts and the type of stories and details I was looking for. To the extent that stories and examples were given, they were oversold.
I respect the author's opinion, but I think it is poorly defended and subject to considerable question.

In addition, the book digresses way too far into subjects of religion and philosophy.

Finally, and I hate to say this part the most, the book is kind of boring. The prose is (again) heavy-handed as well as long-winded. I found myself skipping ahead, which is something I never do.

I did manage to finish the book, but I was left with a sense of buyer's remorse.

If you describe yourself as a "zeroer", you will find much to your liking. Otherwise, you will probably find little to change your mind.

14 of 17 people found the following review helpful.
Basically an internal monologue
By Joey Bee
This book strikes me as a great New Yorker or Atlantic Monthly article that was streched into a book with less than optimal results. You get some really chilling information and assessments, which are unfortunately wrapped around Rosenbaum basically debating morality with himself. There's a great deal missing here - it's a shame, because it is such a compelling topic, but it isn't done justice here.

7 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
Thoughtful Exploration of Nuclear Dilemma
By Albigensian
The author starts by assuming that most nations build nuclear weapons not because they wish to use them but because they wish to deter others from using theirs. The central question explored in this book is, what would be the morality of nuclear retaliation if a day comes when deterrence has failed?

This is a somewhat circular argument, in that deterrence depends upon convincing one's potential enemies that retaliation is certain. Submarine-launched missiles can provide a second strike capability, as subs could launch devastating attacks even if the nation that owns them no longer exists.

And yet ... if your country has already been destroyed, then what is there to gain from launching your nuclear weapons-- other than to kill tens or hundreds of millions who otherwise might live?

And yet, and yet: if one is not willing to implement a nuclear policy that ensures retaliation after an attack, are one's enemies not likely to discern this? And when they do, won't they be more likely to attack? And if so, wouldn't implementing such a policy increase the probability of nuclear war?

All of this assumes there are people in the world who would choose to commit mass murder. The author clearly believes there are, as his reference is Hitler and the holocaust. Further, he recognizes that Israel could be totally destroyed by just one or two nuclear bombs, and that it is surrounded by many who speak openly of extermination.

But then he runs up against the morality of retaliation after deterrence has failed, and his moral principles just will not let him go there. As he sees it, once all is lost then retaliation can never be justified. And if retaliation cannot be justified, then a policy based on it must be immoral and should be abandoned.

In the end, the author really doesn't offer a solution, other than perhaps a vague, utopian plea that perhaps nuclear weapons can be banished from the world. What I found irritating about this book was the author's frequent and sometimes sarcastic dismissal of those who disagree with him.

I personally find the logic of nuclear deterrence compelling. Since the risk of a nuclear doomsday can never be completely eliminated, remaining choices can only reduce it. In a world in which nuclear weapons cannot be made to just go away, a policy of sure retaliation seems the best (although surely not perfect) defense against their use.

Although I mostly disagree with the author, he has written a lively and thought-provoking book. I recommend it to all who are interested in such questions. It certainly is not boring!

See all 22 customer reviews...

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